CIBC revises Canadian forecast, downwards

In what it admits is an unusual situation, CIBC has revised its full-year outlook, only a month after releasing it.

In an article entitled “The Winter of our Discontent”, CIBC’s chief economist Avery Shenfeld says “It’s unusual for us to want to reconsider a full-year outlook that we published only a month ago, but then again, these are unusual times. Oil’s further plunge, and a similar malaise across most of the resource space…continues to push back the timetable for reaching a bottom in related capital spending in Canada”.

The report goes on to say that it now looks like 2016 will be “below 1.5% real GDP growth rather than our prior 1.7% call….even to achieve that pace, we’re allowing for an additional $10 bn in stimulus relative to the election platform an a $30 bn in federal deficit, and a slighter weaker track for the Canadian dollar”.

You can read the full report here.   You can access CIBC’s Canada research papers here.

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